COMMERCIAL CONTROL · EARNED VALUE · COST RISK

The Money View of
the Whole Job

Spend against plan, what the work done is actually worth, the cost of simply being on site, and the range the final account could land in — all tied to the programme rather than to a separate spreadsheet.

On most jobs the programme and the money live in different buildings. The planner owns one, the QS owns the other, and they meet once a month to disagree about a figure that neither of them can fully derive.

That gap is where overruns hide. The programme knows the work has slipped but not what the slippage costs. The cost report knows the money has gone but not which activities took it. Put them on the same data and most of the argument disappears.

The S-curve, with a third line

Everyone has seen the spend curve. Planned money over time, rising to the budget at completion. On its own it tells you very little.

The S-curve: planned, actual and forecast spend against the budget line
Planned, actual to today, and a forecast projecting where you will land against the budget line. The gap between the lines is the story.

The third line is the one that matters: a forecast that continues from where you actually are, rather than assuming the rest of the job behaves exactly as planned. One glance tells you whether the money is tracking the plan or drifting away from it, and it does it before the drift is large enough to appear in a monthly report.

Are we actually on track?

This is the question a commercial manager asks, and percent complete cannot answer it. Earned value can: it compares the worth of the work done against what was planned by now, and against what has been spent getting there.

Earned value: planned, earned and actual, with the SPI and CPI verdicts in plain words
SPI 0.74 — behind schedule, £197,600 of planned work not yet earned. CPI 0.94 — over budget, £35,700 more spent than earned.

Both indices are written out in pounds underneath. Nobody in the meeting has to remember which one is cost and which one is schedule, and nobody has to translate 0.74 into something they can act on. I have watched that single choice change how a progress meeting goes.

The two numbers also mean different things, and lumping them together loses that. Behind schedule is work not yet done; it can sometimes be recovered by resequencing. Over budget is money already consumed; it generally cannot.

Getting better or getting worse?

A single snapshot is arguable. The direction of travel is not.

Cost and schedule efficiency trended over time against the on-plan line
Cost and schedule efficiency at every check-in. Above the 1.00 line is good; below needs attention. A drifting line is an early warning.

A line that has been sliding for three months is a much stronger case in a meeting than a bad month, and it usually shows up before the raw totals look alarming.

The cost of simply being there

Most of the money in an overrun is not the building. It is site staff, cabins, welfare, temporary power, plant on hire and scaffold, running week after week whether or not anything productive is happening.

The tool maps that and prices it: on this programme, every week of programme costs £4,790 in indirects. In Lean terms it is entirely non-value-adding, and all of it stops the day the job finishes.

The indirect cost map and the savings finder
The weekly cost of being on site, itemised — and beside it, the moves that release it, each proven by a real schedule re-run.

Then it goes one step further than reporting the cost: it finds what shortens it. Finish the activities holding the scaffold on site earlier, strike it sooner, save £9,700 — proven by re-running the schedule rather than estimated on the back of an envelope. You tick the moves you judge safe; the tool does the arithmetic and logs the risk each one introduces.

How much might it actually cost?

A single forecast figure is a hopeful number. The same forecast, run six hundred times with every activity varying within its likely range, gives you something you can commit to.

Cost uncertainty: best, likely and worst final cost across 600 runs
Best case £1.59M, most likely £1.64M, worst £1.70M — and how much of the spread lands over the budget line. That is cost risk, quantified.

And the time twin of the same run:

Finish-date forecast: best, likely and worst completion across 600 runs
The spread of finish dates from the same simulation, with an honest note that simulated finishes tend to land later than a single-point plan.

That note matters. Monte Carlo finishes are usually later than the programme says, because delays compound and the latest path always wins. A tool that hides that is flattering you.

One source, or it is not worth having

Every figure above comes from the same schedule and the same progress data, measured at the same stated day. The cost report cannot disagree with the programme, because there is only one set of numbers underneath.

And where there is no data yet, it says so rather than filling the gap. Inferred start dates are marked as inferred. Unpriced items are shown as unpriced rather than quietly counted as zero. That honesty is the difference between a report you can take into a meeting and one you have to defend.

See it on your own job

GeneraGantt reads MS Project, Primavera P6 and Asta Powerproject, and the earned-value and risk reports download as CSV and PDF, each stating the day it was measured at. Nothing is saved: your schedule leaves with you.

It is free while it is in testing, with a sample programme loaded so you can walk the whole money view without uploading anything.

Figures in this article come from the sample programmes in GeneraGantt.